# Daily Ecosystem Report — 2026-06-11

> Generated by `saltwaterbrc-ecosystem` Worker. All data from D1 — no Chrome, no manual scraping.

## TL;DR

- **Regime:** RISK-OFF (score 1/6). Market bias: **Bearish**.
- **UW Market Tide:** **BEARISH** (net $-0.03B today: $-0.01B call premium vs $-0.02B put premium)
- **Top net-impact tickers:** MU $-12M, SNDK +$8M, INTC +$6M
- **Candidates evaluated:** 4
- **PROCEED:** GOOGL, BILL
- **WAIT:** _none today_
- **Today's earnings:** 6 pre-market (MH, DRVN, LOVE, ACB, HOFT, …), 5 after-hours (ADBE, LEN.B, LEN, RH, ZDGE)
- **Today's econ events:** Core PPI year over year | PPI year over year | Core PPI | Producer price index | Initial jobless claims

## Macro Context

- Regime: **RISK-OFF** (1/6)
- VIX: 21.62 (-2.7%)
- Factors:
  - **VIX** NEUTRAL: 21.62 — normal range
  - **DXY** NEUTRAL: Stable (UUP 28.06)
  - **WTI Oil** NEUTRAL-BULLISH: Oil stable (USO $133.25)
  - **Gold** NEUTRAL: Steady (GLD $374.6)
  - **Bitcoin** NEUTRAL: Flat at $62,993

## Money Flow

Market bias: **Bearish**

### Sector Flow

| Ticker | Sector | Change | Flow |
|--------|--------|--------|------|
| SMH | Semiconductors | +2.95% | Strong Inflow |
| XLK | Technology | +0.88% | Inflow |
| XLE | Energy | +0.5% | Inflow |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +0.39% | Flat |
| XLV | Healthcare | +0.36% | Flat |
| XOP | Oil E&P | +0.29% | Flat |
| XLY | Consumer Disc. | +0.19% | Flat |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +0.08% | Flat |
| XLF | Financials | +0.07% | Flat |

### Sector Flips (vs prior snapshot)

- 🔄 **SMH** (Semiconductors): was *Flat* → now *Strong Inflow*
- 🔄 **XLK** (Technology): was *Flat* → now *Inflow*
- 🔄 **XOP** (Oil E&P): was *Strong Inflow* → now *Flat*
- 🔄 **XLP** (Consumer Staples): was *Inflow* → now *Flat*

## Δ Since Yesterday (2026-06-10)

Tickers that appeared on yesterday's scheduled scan and how they changed today. Flags highlight conviction drops ≥2, greek-flow sign flips, SMD drops ≥0.15, or verdict changes involving PROCEED.

| Ticker | Verdict | ΔConv | ΔSF | ΔGreek Flow | ΔSMD | Flags |
|--------|---------|-------|-----|-------------|------|-------|
| BILL | **PROCEED** | 0 | -10.0 | +0.01M | +0.15 | — |

## Cross-Reference vs Ed's Screener

> Ed's snapshot: `eds_1780927987750` from 2026-06-08 (full, 72.0h old). 4 tickers · 4 CALLS / 0 PUTS. ⚠️ Snapshot is stale (>6h).
> Time horizon mismatch: Ed targets ~9 DTE, your pipeline targets 90-120 DTE. Cross-reference shows directional alignment, not entry-strike compatibility.

### ✅ ON BOTH LISTS

_No tickers on both PROCEED lists with same direction today._

### 📉 OURS ONLY (Ed didn't catch)

GOOGL PUTS (8/10), BILL PUTS (7/10)

### 📈 ED ONLY (you didn't surface — note: 9-DTE timeframe)

IWM 76% CALLS, QQQGEX 77% CALLS, NOKGEX 81% CALLS, MUGEX 89% CALLS

_Worth running `/scan-watchlist?tickers=IWM,QQQGEX,NOKGEX,MUGEX` to see if your 90-DTE pipeline agrees on the bigger names._

## Candidates

| Ticker | Verdict | Conv | Dir | DTE | Cost | % of Cash | TP / SL | Warnings |
|--------|---------|------|-----|-----|------|-----------|---------|----------|
| GOOGL | **PROCEED** | 8/10 | PUTS | 98 | $2855 | 36.09% | $57.1 / $14.28 | ⚠️ MEAN-REVERT REGIME ⚠️ EARNINGS T-41 |
| BILL | **PROCEED** | 7/10 | PUTS | — | — | — | — / — | ✅ clean |
| TGT | **PASS** | 6/10 | NEUTRAL | 98 | $948 | 11.98% | $18.96 / $4.74 | ⚠️ MEAN-REVERT REGIME ⚠️ EARNINGS T-69 |
| MET | **PASS** | 6/10 | NEUTRAL | 98 | $1360 | 17.19% | $6.8 / $1.7 | ⚠️ MEAN-REVERT REGIME ⚠️ EARNINGS T-55 |

### GOOGL — PROCEED

- **Verdict reason:** Conviction 8/10 PUTS, 2 warnings
- **Conviction:** 8/10 — In Money Flow (+3); Screener 86% high (+3); Macro RISK-OFF aligns PUTS (+1); R7 Unusual Activity hit (+1); ⚠️ Greek flow BULLISH (+Δ0.13M) contradicts PUTS (-1); 💎 BLUE_CARD: IV/RV30 0.89 — options cheap vs actual movement (+1)
- **Screener:** 86% | **Signal Flow:** 93 | **Direction:** PUTS
- **Smart Money Divergence (UW):** ×1 — neutral
  - DP: NEUTRAL (500 prints, vs spot -0.1%) | Net Premium: NEUTRAL | Flow Alerts: NEUTRAL (100 alerts, 28 sweeps) | GEX: POSITIVE
- **Insider activity (60d, ex-10b5-1):** ⚪ **NEUTRAL** — 0 buys ($0) vs 9 sales ($9.54M), top: SVP, Chief Financial Officer, last 2027-01-25
- **Strike signals:** Max pain $310 (-11.4% from spot, DOWN) | Top flow at $360 (11.8% of today's flow) | OI anchors: call $450 (resistance) / put $300 (support) | GEX flip est. ~$375
- **IV term structure:** BACKWARDATION (front month richer — event/stress signal) | 1y IV rank: 36.5%
- **Greek flow today:** 🟢 **BULLISH** — net Δ flow 0.13M, vega flow -0.62M (positioning being built right now)
- **NOPE (forced MM hedging):** 🔴 -0.0740 → **BEARISH**
- **RV vs IV:** RV30 36.2% / IV 32.3% / ratio 0.89 → 💎 BLUE CARD (cheap)
- **🚦 Green-Light read:** ⚪ **MEAN_REVERT_REGIME** (tier: NONE)
- **Spot:** $349.88 | **IVR:** 43.9 | **IV30:** 36.1% (FAIR)
- **Target expiry:** 2026-09-18 (98 DTE)
- **ATM put:** $28.55 | **Cost/contract:** $2855 | **Recommended contracts:** 1 | **Total cost:** $2855 (36.09% of account)
- **Black-Scholes:** $23.87 (mkt $28.55) | δ=-0.437 | θ=$-0.11/day | vega=$0.71/1%
- **Expected move (1σ):** ±$65.45 → range $284.43 – $415.33
- **100/50 bracket:** entry $28.55 on $350 ATM strike → TP $57.1 (+100%) / SL $14.28 (-50%) | R:R 2:1 | both GTC + OCO
- **Earnings:** INSIDE (2026-07-22, 41d)
- **💵 Trade size:** $2855 = **36.09% of cash** (1 contract @ $28.55/each)
- **Exposure after:** 36.09% of account (informational — no ceiling)
- **⚠️ Warnings (2):**
  - ⚠️ **MEAN-REVERT REGIME** — Positive GEX — dealers absorb moves, no trend-amplification fuel for directional bets
  - ⚠️ **EARNINGS T-41** — Earnings in 41 day(s), inside 98-day expiry window — IV crush risk before exit

**Scenarios:**

| Scenario | Spot | Option | PnL | Return |
|----------|------|--------|-----|--------|
| Hit expected move (1σ) | $284.43 | $80.91 | $52.36 | 183.4% |
| Stretch +5% | $332.39 | $42.55 | $14 | 49% |
| Stretch +10% | $314.89 | $56.54 | $27.99 | 98% |
| Mild move +2% | $342.88 | $34.15 | $5.6 | 19.6% |
| Flat (current spot) | $349.88 | $24.27 | $-4.28 | -15% |
| IV compression | $349.88 | $18.56 | $-9.99 | -35% |
| Adverse 2% | $356.88 | $25.05 | $-3.5 | -12.3% |
| Adverse 5% | $367.37 | $19.8 | $-8.75 | -30.6% |
| Stop hit (50% loss) | $349.88 | $14.28 | $-14.27 | -50% |
| TP hit (100% gain) | $349.88 | $57.1 | $28.55 | 100% |
| Best case (3σ) | $153.53 | $185.63 | $157.08 | 550.2% |

### BILL — PROCEED

- **Verdict reason:** Conviction 7/10 PUTS, no warnings
- **Conviction:** 7/10 — In Money Flow (+3); Screener 80% high (+3); Macro RISK-OFF aligns PUTS (+1)
- **Screener:** 80% | **Signal Flow:** 90 | **Direction:** PUTS
- **Smart Money Divergence (UW):** ×1 — neutral
  - DP: NEUTRAL (1 prints, vs spot 0%) | Net Premium: NEUTRAL | Flow Alerts: NEUTRAL (100 alerts, 16 sweeps) | GEX: NEGATIVE
- **Insider activity (60d, ex-10b5-1):** ⚪ **NEUTRAL** — 0 buys ($0) vs 4 sales ($1.90M), top: CEO, last 2026-05-28
- **Strike signals:** Max pain $36 (+11.28% from spot, UP) | Top flow at $39 (22.8% of today's flow) | OI anchors: call $45 (resistance) / put $32.5 (support) | GEX flip est. ~$38.75
- **IV term structure:** BACKWARDATION (front month richer — event/stress signal) | 1y IV rank: 54.5%
- **NOPE (forced MM hedging):** ⚪ 0.0084 → **NEUTRAL**
- **RV vs IV:** RV30 58.4% / IV 70.7% / ratio 1.21 → neutral
- **Spot:** $32.35 | **IVR:** 46.6 | **IV30:** 57.9% (FAIR)
- **Earnings:** CLEAR (2026-08-26, 76d)
- **Exposure after:** 0% of account (informational — no ceiling)
- **⚠️ Warnings:** ✅ none — clean setup

### TGT — PASS

- **Verdict reason:** No directional signal
- **Conviction:** 6/10 — Screener 75% high (+3); IVR 6.4 (cheap, +2); R7 Unusual Activity hit (+1)
- **Screener:** 75% | **Signal Flow:** 62.5 | **Direction:** NEUTRAL
- **Smart Money Divergence (UW):** ×1 — neutral
  - DP: NEUTRAL (22 prints, vs spot -0.24%) | Net Premium: NEUTRAL | Flow Alerts: NEUTRAL (100 alerts, 19 sweeps) | GEX: POSITIVE
- **Insider activity (60d, ex-10b5-1):** ⚪ **NEUTRAL** — 0 buys ($0) vs 2 sales ($7.75M), top: Executive Officer, last 2026-05-29
- **Strike signals:** Max pain $115 (-11.24% from spot, DOWN) | Top flow at $130 (42.3% of today's flow) | OI anchors: call $130 (resistance) / put $100 (support) | GEX flip est. ~$115
- **IV term structure:** BACKWARDATION (front month richer — event/stress signal) | 1y IV rank: 13.2%
- **Greek flow today:** 🔴 **BEARISH** — net Δ flow -0.13M, vega flow -0.06M (positioning being built right now)
- **NOPE (forced MM hedging):** 🟢🚀 1.0149 → **BULLISH** (HIGH_POSITIVE_NOPE)
- **RV vs IV:** RV30 32.8% / IV 32.6% / ratio 1.00 → neutral
- **🚦 Green-Light read:** ⚪ **MEAN_REVERT_REGIME** (tier: NONE)
- **Spot:** $129.57 | **IVR:** 6.4 | **IV30:** 32.6% (FAIR)
- **Target expiry:** 2026-09-18 (98 DTE)
- **ATM call:** $9.48 | **Cost/contract:** $948 | **Recommended contracts:** 1 | **Total cost:** $948 (11.98% of account)
- **Black-Scholes:** $9.47 (mkt $9.48) | δ=0.562 | θ=$-0.05/day | vega=$0.26/1%
- **Expected move (1σ):** ±$21.88 → range $107.69 – $151.45
- **100/50 bracket:** entry $9.48 on $130 ATM strike → TP $18.96 (+100%) / SL $4.74 (-50%) | R:R 2:1 | both GTC + OCO
- **Earnings:** INSIDE (2026-08-19, 69d)
- **💵 Trade size:** $948 = **11.98% of cash** (1 contract @ $9.48/each)
- **Exposure after:** 11.98% of account (informational — no ceiling)
- **⚠️ Warnings (2):**
  - ⚠️ **MEAN-REVERT REGIME** — Positive GEX — dealers absorb moves, no trend-amplification fuel for directional bets
  - ⚠️ **EARNINGS T-69** — Earnings in 69 day(s), inside 98-day expiry window — IV crush risk before exit

**Scenarios:**

| Scenario | Spot | Option | PnL | Return |
|----------|------|--------|-----|--------|
| Hit expected move (1σ) | $151.45 | $26.98 | $17.5 | 184.6% |
| Stretch +5% | $136.05 | $14.66 | $5.18 | 54.6% |
| Stretch +10% | $142.53 | $19.85 | $10.37 | 109.4% |
| Mild move +2% | $132.16 | $11.55 | $2.07 | 21.8% |
| Flat (current spot) | $129.57 | $8.06 | $-1.42 | -15% |
| IV compression | $129.57 | $6.16 | $-3.32 | -35% |
| Adverse 2% | $126.98 | $8.18 | $-1.3 | -13.7% |
| Adverse 5% | $123.09 | $6.24 | $-3.24 | -34.2% |
| Stop hit (50% loss) | $129.57 | $4.74 | $-4.74 | -50% |
| TP hit (100% gain) | $129.57 | $18.96 | $9.48 | 100% |
| Best case (3σ) | $195.21 | $61.99 | $52.51 | 553.9% |

### MET — PASS

- **Verdict reason:** No directional signal
- **Conviction:** 6/10 — Screener 75% high (+3); IVR 14.8 (cheap, +2); R7 Unusual Activity hit (+1)
- **Screener:** 75% | **Signal Flow:** 62.5 | **Direction:** NEUTRAL
- **Smart Money Divergence (UW):** ×1 — neutral
  - DP: NEUTRAL (9 prints, vs spot 0.2%) | Net Premium: NEUTRAL | Flow Alerts: BEARISH (100 alerts, 11 sweeps) | GEX: POSITIVE
- **Insider activity (60d, ex-10b5-1):** ⚪ **NEUTRAL** — 0 buys ($0) vs 1 sales ($1.74M), top: EVP & Chief Risk Officer, last 2026-06-01
- **Strike signals:** Max pain $77.5 (-10.5% from spot, DOWN) | Top flow at $90 (35.6% of today's flow) | OI anchors: call $80 (resistance) / put $75 (support) | GEX flip est. ~$77.5
- **IV term structure:** FLAT (flat curve) | 1y IV rank: 37.2%
- **NOPE (forced MM hedging):** ⚪ 0.0022 → **NEUTRAL**
- **RV vs IV:** RV30 19.5% / IV 24.9% / ratio 1.27 → neutral
- **🚦 Green-Light read:** ⚪ **MEAN_REVERT_REGIME** (tier: NONE)
- **Spot:** $86.59 | **IVR:** 14.8 | **IV30:** 23.3% (CHEAP)
- **Target expiry:** 2026-09-18 (98 DTE)
- **ATM call:** $3.4 | **Cost/contract:** $340 | **Recommended contracts:** 4 | **Total cost:** $1360 (17.19% of account)
- **Black-Scholes:** $4.69 (mkt $3.4) | δ=0.564 | θ=$-0.03/day | vega=$0.18/1%
- **Expected move (1σ):** ±$10.47 → range $76.12 – $97.06
- **100/50 bracket:** entry $3.4 on **$90 strike** (overridden from ATM $87.5: Flow concentration 35.6% at $90 (vs ATM $87.5)) → TP $6.8 (+100%) / SL $1.7 (-50%) | R:R 2:1 | both GTC + OCO
- **Earnings:** INSIDE (2026-08-05, 55d)
- **💵 Trade size:** $1360 = **17.19% of cash** (4 contracts @ $3.4/each)
- **Exposure after:** 17.19% of account (informational — no ceiling)
- **⚠️ Warnings (2):**
  - ⚠️ **MEAN-REVERT REGIME** — Positive GEX — dealers absorb moves, no trend-amplification fuel for directional bets
  - ⚠️ **EARNINGS T-55** — Earnings in 55 day(s), inside 98-day expiry window — IV crush risk before exit

**Scenarios:**

| Scenario | Spot | Option | PnL | Return |
|----------|------|--------|-----|--------|
| Hit expected move (1σ) | $97.06 | $11.78 | $8.38 | 246.5% |
| Stretch +5% | $90.92 | $6.86 | $3.46 | 101.8% |
| Stretch +10% | $95.25 | $10.33 | $6.93 | 203.8% |
| Mild move +2% | $88.32 | $4.79 | $1.39 | 40.9% |
| Flat (current spot) | $86.59 | $2.89 | $-0.51 | -15% |
| IV compression | $86.59 | $2.21 | $-1.19 | -35% |
| Adverse 2% | $84.86 | $2.53 | $-0.87 | -25.6% |
| Adverse 5% | $82.26 | $1.24 | $-2.16 | -63.5% |
| Stop hit (50% loss) | $86.59 | $1.7 | $-1.7 | -50% |
| TP hit (100% gain) | $86.59 | $6.8 | $3.4 | 100% |
| Best case (3σ) | $118 | $28.53 | $25.13 | 739.1% |

---

**Sources:**
- macro: `macro_1781185529645` (2026-06-11)
- money-flow: `mf_1781186902535` (2026-06-11)
- screener: `scan_1781186727528` (4 top picks evaluated)

_Generated 2026-06-11T14:15:27.690Z_